Donald Trump’s second term in office is causing great concern about the future of the Liberal International Order (ILO) in Western capitals and headquarters of international organizations (IOs). Over the course of the last months, Trump fundamentally attacked international institutions such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the Paris Agreement, and the World Trade Organization (WTO). The blueprints for his second administration by the “America First Institute” and “Project 2025” suggest that the U.S. should systematically review its support for international institutions and terminate membership if they are considered in conflict with their definition of the national interest. Will we witness a large-scale withdrawal of the U.S. from numerous international institutions?

Based on our research about negative institutional power and institutional contestation, we argue that Trump 1.0 only escalated attacks against those institutions in which the U.S. lacked control. This strategic pattern allows us to derive concrete predictions about in which institutions Trump 2.0 will voice reform demands, engage in subversion, or withdraw membership.