How will Trump 2.0 attack international institutions and how will this affect the Liberal International Order (LIO)? 

I had the pleasure to present insights from my research on the US ambivalence towards multilateralism under Trump 1.0 and beyond at the 20th Bensberger Gespräche with the topical theme "Liberal World Order Under Pressure." 

I challenged four common claims about Trump:

1. US withdrawal from multilateral institutions is neither new nor Trump-specific, but a repeating historical pattern.

2. Decisions to end US support under Trump were not irrational or erratic, but followed a strategic calculation.

3. Institutions abandoned by the US are not doomed to fail, but often proved resilient.

4. The power vacuum left by the US was not filled by revisionist powers such as China but by European governments and the EU.

In its response to Trump 2.0, Europe is confronted with a dilemma:

• Ensuring the transatlantic partnership: With Russia’s ongoing war, Europe heavily depends on US security guarantees – and in turn is very vulnerable to US retaliation. 

• Ensuring multilateral problem-solving: As power is diffusing, Europe also heavily depends on multilateral collaboration with rising powers beyond the West, such as India, China, and Brazil, to address global challenges such as climate change.

Europe must thus carefully choose case by case between two strategies to navigate this dilemma:

• Appeasement: They should try to keep the US in multilateral institutions by accommodating Trump’s demands where this does not undermine the purpose of multilateral cooperation.

• Substitution: Where Trump fundamentally challenges multilateral cooperation, Europe should step up and seek new partners to fill the gap left by the US.

The Bensberger Gespräche are co-organized by the Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung / Federal Agency for Civic Education (BPB) and the Zentrum Innere Führung of the Bundeswehr (ZInFü).